(Originally posted on Facebook before media announcement)
Normally there are 11 folks in Cabinet including the Premier.
So we have some interesting possibilities in terms of party representation today.
Of the 12 elected PC’s, the government may select 11 of their own MLAs to form Cabinet. As odd as it sounds, King may have no better options.
Green involvement in Cabinet is a non-starter, picking up on the statements of Peter Bevan-Baker not finding a satisfying approach on how such a collaborative approach to the minority government may work. The Green party cannot have Cabinet participation as that would engagement would directly contradict their role, and Islanders’, wishes for a Green Opposition. Judging from the comments the, Greens were neither consulted nor were they interested in whatever the PCs were offering (my personal guess is nothing).
The other option is to involve severely diminished and leaderless Liberal party MLAs in Cabinet to support PC legislation over the next year as a show of willingness for consensus building in a minority setting. Liberal representation in Cabinet does not make political sense at the moment, given the rejection of the vast majority of former MLAs as well as the former Premier.
On the other hand, time is on Liberal side, they still need to regroup and find a leader. They should let Dennis King sort his cabinet himself or work out a shared cabinet under a Greeen/Liberal coalition though unlikely.
The PCs are 2 votes away from a majority with one by-election in the future. Dennis King should consider Hillsborough as a certain loss for the PCs.
In the meantime, most Liberal MLAs are returning incumbents with the exception of Gordon McNeilly. King won’t find the two missing votes from Liberal ranks on a one-off basis, and with a fresh and motivated Green presence, none of the 8, I think, have put any thought into crossing the floor for a Cabinet post.
Looking at the distribution of the 12 PC seats, King has scant change of a Cabinet reflective of Island political stances the and post-election landscape to selecting anything but a full PC Cabinet. I also wonder about their distribution of ability and background in the portfolios when you have only exactly enough people to fill the seats.
King may choose to go with an 11 member mostly (considering D6) rural set of PC MLAs having already secured Liberal support for the first budget. Perhaps a temporary skeleton crew for starters, because by giving the Liberals back their budget, while they won’t be in government, they can still argue that they’ve been involved in setting government priorities for the next year.
Neither opposition party need be involved in the power vacuum problem in Cabinet, together, they have much more power from the outside.
In the meantime, King will all but cut-out the Greens (their biggest threat) from budget and throne speeches. The PC Charlottetown City Council helped prepare the groundwork by doing away with existing and ongoing environmentally focused projects in the Capital area. Looking at the election results, City Council were prepared for a Green provincial capital.
Green motions of non-confidence won’t get Liberal support for the time being, and the Liberals, mostly winning to Green second place finishes risk further loss if they act before regaining public interest.
Thankfully for the Greens, their broad provincial support will allow them a breadth of opportunity to challenge government on everything from agriculture to social issues and the spectrum.
Next time I’ll look at Dennis King’s staff picks to show that this year’s PC focus will be housing, while the narrative for the remainder of their term will focus on health care.
A Shot in the Dark Politics 